Food security change scenarios
Varied skills and data is needed to build scenarios. There is a need to identify what the current baseline, forecast (seasonal and exceptional) and drivers are and then decide upon the potential scenarios to see if data can be modelled to demonstrate changes.
Strategic or operational?
Strategic and operational
Basemap, baseline or situational?
Situational
When might it be produced?
As required, but they can be useful to do near the start of a response and thereafter to adjust against real time feedback.
Intended audience
Food security cluster
World Food Programme (WFP)
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Response actors
Influence on humanitarian decisions
The descisions made provide opportunities to test out scenarios from existing baseline and trend data to help humanitarians plan long term for where food distribution/cash programmes or suporting services may need revising in the short to medium term.
Methods
A series of maps and products can be created which start with the existing baseline and trends and used to model thresholds of parameters if either trends continue or possible critical events (mass immigration to an area for example) could disrupt the eisting food security situation.
